For no apparently reason The Wall Street Journal has picked up on some of the optimism that the European UMTS operators continue to flout. In a Heard on the Street column datelined today the Journal gushes:
After years of mishaps and delays, "third generation" wireless technology has finally arrived. And that could be a good signal for investors.
Yes, but even the most aggressive of industry analysts at Ovum say that 3G will have to have a breakout year in 2006 in order to reach 15% market penetration by the end of next year.
But some analysts expect 2006 to be the break-out year for the technology. Ovum, a telecommunications consultancy in London, forecasts that European operators will have registered 63 million 3G subscribers -- one in six European cellphone users -- by the end of next year, as the sophisticated networks needed to carry the technology finish being rolled out and prices for 3G handsets come down.
Trust me. The operators have been predicting a breakout year for UMTS for half a decade, and it hasn't happened yet. Service and handsets are still too expensive, handset battery life is still dismal and the vast majority of cellular users still just want better voice service for ever-declining prices. And add to that the market dynamic that new UMTS customers in Europe are coming from the ranks of the GSM customers. Classic cannibalization.
Want to see the future of 3G? Read the last paragraph of the Journal's piece:
Japan, where 3G services were introduced earlier than in Europe and are more widespread, offers both hope and caution to European operators. The country's biggest wireless operator, NTT DoCoMo Inc., says its 13.7 million 3G subscribers use their phones twice as much as regular customers and spend about 50% more each month. The company expects to nearly double its 3G subscribers to 24 million by next spring. But its overall average revenue per customer is still falling. Like some of its competitors, DoCoMo uses enticing flat-rate plans to grab market share, which can push down average spending. As a result, it expects its average 3G customer to spend 6% less this year.Posted by Jack at August 25, 2005 10:31 AM | TrackBack
Dear Jack, My Dad was Raymond Joseph Barse from Winthrop, NY. He died when I was five years old and I was raised by my mother and stepfather and I on a constant search to learn more about my family. Since the last name is not a common one, I was hoping that you may somehow be tied into my family and give me another link to where I came from.
I also read some of your articles that you posted. The terrible situation in New Orleans is a shame. I don't see why it has taken the government so long to step up and begin to help. The tsunami victims, in the spring, was getting aid from the U.S. in two days. That was a disaster and we needed to help but it hit with no warning. The forcast kept showing that Katrina was going to his New Orleans for more than a week. The government should have been preparing for this disaster especially since they knew that it was a category 5. The government officials should be ashamed of themselves for not responding to our own citizens right here in the U.S. quicker than they did. There just is no excuse.
Polly
pollyfleming@excite.com
Polly, how wonderful to hear from you. My dad has done a lot of research into the family tree, and I wouldn't be at all surprised to learn that there's a fairly recent connection. I'll ask him to have a look.
Regarding the politics of the hurricane, I agree completely that Katrina has been a disaster, which one man pointed out means that it overwhelmed our collective ability to do something about it -- otherwise we'd consider it merely an inconvenience.
I'm not sure how much faster 'the government' -- which in my definition includes local, state and federal agencies -- could have responded. For example, there was a US Navy ship off the coast of Lousiana dispatching support on Monday, even before the winds subsided. The Coast Guard was plucking people from roofs on Monday afternoon as well. And both the Red Cross and Salvation Army had supplies and volunteers staged to support the shelters at the Superdome and the Convention Center. But, as we learned over the past couple of days, the Louisiana government wouldn't let them in because they didn't want to attract more people to those spots.
As I said earlier in the week, I'm sure there is plenty of room for improvement in the response at every level. What I'm most appalled by is the willingness of those who dislike the President to exploit this tragedy to further their own political agenda. It's shameful.
Posted by: jack at September 9, 2005 09:47 AM